While there is a need for new institutions, this project should not be one. The rate of return if you do something really cheap (my project was <500k) that affects hundreds of millions of people and trillions of dollars is greater than any VC bet.Ī project like this must be done away from DC, the conventional GOP power centres and the consultant class. The preparation proved very valuable when we captured No10 and it arguably made the difference between us escaping a once-a-century constitutional crisis, winning the election and having a plan - or not. I thought the government could collapse and another opportunity present itself. I’d watched how Insiders blundered in 2016 and lost a referendum they should never have lost.
If the project hits the jackpot and propels a candidate to President, it could also make the difference between another failure or a rare historical change. If it fails short-term - no viable candidate/plan - at the very least you’ll be able to sell the model to hedge funds (and/or use yourselves for trading) and make a ?10X return. There is an obvious danger that various people think - leave 2024 alone, I don’t need Trump attacking me and whether he or Biden wins they’ll both be gone in 2028.Įven if the project fails to propel a candidate to the Presidency in 2024, the predictive model of the electorate it should build will be valuable so the project can hardly fail to repay the original investment. The sooner it starts the greater the chance that someone serious can be found and helped early enough to stop Trump. He didn’t drain even a corner of the swamp, he just annoyed it.Ī tiny and cheap (<$2-3 million) project - independent-for-now of any candidate - should start now to figure out how a GOP candidate could win, how they could actually control the government after they win, and who the candidate should be. He demonstrated no interest in actually controlling the government. Whether Trump wins or loses his candidacy will be terrible for everybody. His chances of winning in 2024 are, now, higher than most realise, partly because the media exaggerated the competence of the Biden administration in its zeal to trash Trump. Structural factors mean Trump, despite being Trump, will start close. Even if it did the White House could not make the DC supertanker turn more than a fraction. It will not be able to focus usefully on serious issues until that mad energy has burned itself out. The Democratic Party is firmly in the grip of a generation of activists deranged by Ivy League insanity, BLM etc.
Many bad trends will deteriorate the longer he is there. 4 years of him will be bad, 8 will be worse. It’s hard to imagine sane politics over the next 50 years without somehow closing (or at very least ‘changing beyond recognition’) the GOP, Democrats, Tories, Labour.īiden is rubbish and will deteriorate. You don’t control the government unless you can shut down parts of the ‘permanent’ bureaucracy and you can’t legally do this in the current regime without grabbing control of a party. Even the greatest researchers and extremely able people who have built multi-billion dollar companies often talk as if the President/PM controls the bureaucracies and can instruct them to do X or Y, and they do X or Y, just as they routinely discuss politics as if a) there must be a hidden plan that renders the visible chaos more rational and b) politicians are ‘at least’ rational about electoral/communication strategy (they usually aren’t).Īmerica needs a government that controls the government, as it did under FDR and Lincoln, and shatters the party structure which is a plague. Instead covid policy is portrayed as the product of ‘Cabinet discussions/rows’ - but Cabinet is actually almost totally irrelevant, and usually not even consulted. For example, even after >100k avoidable deaths the entire UK political media provides no analysis of the crucial bureuacratic engine, ‘the Covid Taskforce’, which actually controls covid policy (who controls it, how does it work). There is almost no public discussion in conventional UK media about how power actually works in the British state and this seems to be roughly the same in the US. Iraq, the 2008 financial crisis, covid, the Afghanistan debacle - all are impossible to understand unless you understand this rule.Īlmost no ‘conservatives’ in the UK understand this rule, why ‘reform’ is so extremely hard, and what to do about it. Politicians talk as if the government controls the government and fundraise as if it does. In Washington as in London, the golden rule of Government is - the government does not control the government and anybody who tries to change this is seen as the enemy by the bureaucracies that actually control ~99% of the government.
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